As we begin officially re-opening Florida today (at 25% capacity), I’ve been reflecting on the journey so far. It seems like so long ago that we were first hearing of this virus on the loose in China. Much like hurricane season, there was then two months of discussion and forecasting before a storm was obviously brewing in the Atlantic. And then we hoarded toilet paper, bottled water, and canned goods while we hoped to ride it all out.
But, unlike a hurricane, there was no obvious storm to dodge. The radar proved almost completely worthless, and the cone of uncertainty changed shape radically as the weeks wore on. And now many are saying we must continue on even in the absence of clear evidence that boarding up the house was the right move. “The storm is still out there, it’s gonna get worse,” they say, sitting at home with their bills paid.
Now it just feels like the boy who cried COVID. None of the doomsday scenarios came to pass, and in many places, that was without overly invasive measures. Was Florida smart or lucky, the Wall-Street Journal wonders. A good bit of the former, but with a dose of the latter. Turns our low population density and high humidity works in your favor. And, citizens can chose to stay home without being forced to do so.
I realize I might feel differently if I lived in New York City, but I don’t. I live in suburban Florida in a county where the number of COVID deaths last month (8) is very close to the average number of monthly roadway fatalities (6). The numbers aren’t that far off in neighboring Orange County, home to Walt Disney World, Universal, and 1.5 million people.
But, now we’re turning a corner and I thought it would be interesting to reflect back on the last couple of months as we look ahead to new normals. Since we’re re-opening in phases, I thought thinking in phases was appropriate.
Phase 1
In March, I vacillated between still thinking it was no big deal (my first gut reaction) to wondering if this was the end (because I was reading too many headlines). At the beginning of the month I was still scheduled to go to California for a week. As a result, I had the privilege (and despair) of watching their meltdown via the San Francisco Chronicle’s Twitter account.
By mid-month, spring break technically ended, but we found out we not only weren’t going back to class, but weren’t going to California either. Seeing the writing on the wall, I went to the barber and got cleaned up, and later said goodbye to the gym. I spent an afternoon at my favorite hangout spot (World of Beer) knowing it would probably close soon as well (just in time for St. Patrick’s Day).
By the end of the month, our neighboring county was on a stay-at-home order, and a social distancing order was in effect for ours. I had pivoted to teaching on Zoom, and we were also packing for a move. But, helpfully as well, I had started tracking data on daily number of new cases and deaths.
With the extra time on our hands, it was easier than anticipated to pack and move. And, since we had planned on having life disrupted at the end of March, it wasn’t overly stressful or anxiety inducing. But, at this point, the projections, especially from IHME, hadn’t been proven ridiculous. So, there was still the looming threat of impending doom, but we were just mostly focused on relocating and keeping the paychecks coming in.
Now, before I go further, full disclosure: My paychecks have been basically uninterrupted. I think other than having to move, we have benefited financially from things being closed, being able to stop student loan payments, and getting stimulus checks (well, whenever the direct deposit shows up). Not greatly, but it has been slightly easier to stay ahead on the budget than usual. Keep that in mind below.
Phase 2
The next phase started after we moved. In Florida, the statewide stay-at-home order started on April 3rd. We moved on April 4th. Because of the extra time, we were mostly settled by Easter weekend.
Having settled in, working from home became more routine, but so did several other semi-daily habits. I’ve still gotten up and gone to Starbucks almost every morning. The one right by our old house was my regular morning reading spot and so I just shifted to going through the drive-thru. Because the baristas there are rockstars, they would still often give me my free refill as I came through (which made my Trenta Cold Brew essentially bogo). Whenever they re-open the cafe, I’ll go back to occupying a comfy chair between 5-7am every morning.
I also would run at least one other errand every day. Sometimes it was to Wal-Mart or Publix, sometimes it was to get lunch or dinner. Sometimes it was just to drive around. I am as you might say, a stay-at-home minimalist. Since the order allowed leaving for essential things, I thought why go to Wal-Mart once a week for groceries when you can just go everyday?
In doing all of this, you know what I noticed? Lots of other people doing the same thing. The roads were never empty, the stores were never ghost-towns. Certainly less busy than usual, but people were still out and about and I was among them. Over the month I noticed more and more people wearing masks, but I never noticed a drop in the number of people. If nothing, it may have gradually increased.
The reason I approached things like this is that I’m comfortable getting maximum exposure. Almost everyone who has died from this to date in central Florida had a pre-existing condition (usually heart disease). Once we had moved, and were all working from home, there was very little risk in possibly getting COVID and being quarantined (and we all knew and agreed on the risks). Better to get antibodies sooner rather than later amirite?
That might not be you, and you know what? That’s perfectly ok. I knew the risks, and was comfortable taking them. I keep my distance naturally and even though I’m around sick kids every fall/winter, I rarely get sick (I get sick about as frequently as leap years happen). I realize the coronavirus is different and novel, but given my immune system and personal practices, I don’t think my odds of infection were ever very high.
Where we live, there are probably less than 100 people who currently have COVID in a county of 500,000 people (there’s been just under 400 total cases, and people don’t stay sick indefinitely). Odds of coming in contact with one of them are pretty low at this point because they know they are sick and are at home (or easily avoidable in public). I suppose there can still be asymptomatic carriers out there, but they don’t seem to be spreading much.
Phase 3
Knowing all that, the sense of impending doom, from the virus at least, was gone by late April. There will supposedly be a second wave, but my main fear is that the government blew it this wave by relying too heavily on those worthless IHME projections. When the second wave is coming, fewer people will take projections seriously, and if they come from better data, they are more likely to be accurate this time around.
That aside, I’m now entering into a re-evaluating phase. This whole thing, warranted by the data or not, has provided a unique opportunity to re-think the routine. When normal life is paused like this, we would be foolish to rush right back to the way things were unless we were convinced they were perfect as is. Any adjustments are much easier made now.
So, as we enter May, I’m looking forward to getting back to my favorite patio, getting back in the gym, and getting a haircut at some point. But, I’m more looking forward to the opportunity to use the next three months for a life reset that has been four years in the making. And that’s what I’d like to start talking about moving forward.